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Soccer predictions – How to win the battle against the bookmakers?

April 20, 2009
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Prosoccer. To win this battle, we have to use our advantages when we make soccer prediction! Here are the advantages of one normal player. The bookmakers cannot be focused only on some soccer matches or sports events, and they are forced to offer large gamma of events. This is because of the rivals. We don’t have this problem; we can focus on couple teams or tournaments and to learn all their possibilities for our next soccer bet. To get the physical and moral condition of the players. At last to estimate the chances and make a soccer bet. The real player may be a fan of Barcelona, but to soccer bet on Real Madrid.

There are two main reasons, which make the bookmaker vulnerable:

The analytic mistake of the bookmakers house.

For difference of other hazard games, like roulette, cards, dice and other, on soccer predictions are the possible outlets are not one way , I mean if we throw a dice we can say that the possibility to be one is exactly 1/6. In the sport the possibility is not that simple. Because of that, bookmakers have analyzing sectors, which must get the possibilities and make a line of next soccer event. It doesn’t matter that on defining of the possibilities we can use programs, the last word is for human. The human decides what coefficient to offer for one or other outlet of one soccer event. And it doesn’t matter how experienced and qualified is this human, he makes mistakes. We all make it.

Conscious mistake of the bookmakers.

Some bookmakers conscious make “mistakes” in their lines, because they want to increase their profit and decrease the risk. Although the calculations of the possibilities, bookmakers know that most of people will bet on soccer team A. The bookmaker’s conscious decrease the coefficient for A, to minimize their lost in way, which really that soccer team won. In that case, they must increase the coefficient of soccer team B. There are conscious “cross” the line. (Usual on national team matches, because there are a lot of soccer predictions .)

This means, that with right choice of the objects of soccer prediction and using their mistakes, we can win.

The player has important advantage against the bookmaker – RIGHT TO CHOOSE. The bookmaker must give coefficients for all soccer matches. Even for that, they don’t understand or don’t have opinion. The bookmakers cannot make deep analyze of all soccer matches. The player can concentrate on couple of soccer matches and soccer prediction only if he got information, which strongly can turn the outlet of the event. It is enough to find 1-2 “cross” on day, and that is enough strong reason for making a soccer predictions.

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What are the possibilities for 1 X 2 – according to the bookmaker, and how does he profit?

April 20, 2009
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The example is the match Chelsea – Arsenal with these coefficients

1-2,00 |Х-3.00 |2-4.00

Index for 1 = 1/2.00 = 0.50 in percent = 50

Index for Х = 1/3.00 = 0.33 in percent = 33

Index for 2 = 1/4.00 = 0.25 in percent = 25

We sum all and get the total index for profit for bookmaker – 1.08 0.5+0.33+0.25 = 1.08 It used to be 1, but here is the deal for the bookmaker, this difference 0.008 is called margin. What is this all about, bookmaker is decided that the chances for Chelsea are 46% – this is 2.17 coefficient but he gave to you lower coefficient – 2.00 ( then higher percentage – 50%) and what happens if there is 100 bets on 1 in 2.00, will be hit 46 matches which is 92 profit with 100 bet.

The part that bookmaker pay – 92%

It is equally of 100% x (1 / total index of profit of the bookmaker) or:

100 x 1/1.08

100 x 0.92

92%

Here calculations show that you really get 8% less, than really must be. This is the bookmaker profit.

The real value of the different prognoses according to the bookmaker:

Index for 1 * Part paid by the bookmaker

Index for Х * Part paid by the bookmaker

Index for 2 * Part paid by the bookmaker

I.e.

0.50 х 92 = 46%

0.33 х 92 = 30,66%

0.25 х 92 = 23%

Total ~100 %

Actually this is the real values, which the bookmaker has given for 1 X 2, before putting the bookmaker diversion.

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Soccer predictions and gambling myths

April 9, 2009

Soccer predictions as a gambling is a game of luck and chance. Since the outcome is usually unsure, there are various myths that surround the world of gambling. However, as in most cases, these myths are not nothing more than superstitions that can be refuted by facts.

The premise that gambling involves luck is not specific. Probability and mathematical matrices are tools that can be used to calculate their chances. In fact, the casino of all employees of these strategies to be a winner in the long term. If players have the advantage in the casino, the casino would suffer huge losses. Each casino has a house set rate, which determines how much advantage it enjoys over the player. These rates are usually kept small, but casinos win huge profits due to the frequency of losses and the volume of players.

Blackjack, poker and slots are often surrounded by myths. Many authors claim that their betting systems are fool proof and ensure consistent profitability. This is a farce, especially aware of the mathematics and the concept of the casino house advantage. No betting system can maintain for long periods, though it may have some initial wins. Another talked about the principle of winning is that card counting in blackjack. Accurate card counting and placing all the cards require pure genius. Even experienced players can take hours to replace cards. A faster method for determining the coefficients of the game, and then participate.

Slot myths can be quite fun. One of the popular myths is that slots are monitored by the casino and they who decide whether one hours will win or loose. In truth, there is no hidden camera or surveillance of slot machines. The entire game is governed by computer programs and is completely independent of human intervention.

Another myth is regarding the possibilities offered by a casino gambler to win as compensation. It is believed that casinos provide free accommodation, meals and other amenities for the gambler who wins, and that gamblers are the best such in the casino there at that time. It is not the best gambler that casinos offset each time.

Depending on the payment options, offset by casino gamblers. Free rooms and meals are provided to make a better experience, even if the gambler suffers huge losses. This helps to build good customer relations and loyalty of customers so that gambler can be a good source of income in the future.

In the battle between religion and gambling is quite old. While some regard gambling as immoral, some think that gambling on festivals brings good luck. A simple explanation may be the age of gambling. Gambling is probably as old as the concept of religion itself. Cards and dice games were popular leisure activities, and is also used in times to predict the future. Thus, gambling and religion may be intricately linked, but do not oppose each other.

Myths may be based on real incidents. But over time, they are white or prejudice of the share to sound completely unreasonable and irrational. Speculation also creates myths. These rumors are entertainment that come with the game and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

More about Sport betting myths

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